Discussion paper

DP10132 When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions

Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.

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Citation

Winter-Ebmer, R, A Weber and S Frühwirth-Schnatter (2014), ‘DP10132 When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10132. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp10132