DP10730 Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis
Author(s): | Ian Martin, Robert Pindyck |
Publication Date: | July 2015 |
Keyword(s): | bioterrorism, catastrophes, catastrophic events, climate change, disasters, epidemics, nuclear terrorism, pandemics, policy objectives, willingness to pay |
JEL(s): | D81, Q5, Q54 |
Programme Areas: | Public Economics |
Link to this Page: | cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10730 |
Faced with numerous potential catastrophes---nuclear and bioterrorism, mega-viruses, climate change, and others---which should society attempt to avert? A policy to avert one catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in cost-benefit terms. But because society faces multiple catastrophes, simple cost-benefit analysis fails: Even if the benefit of averting each one exceeds the cost, we should not necessarily avert them all. We explore the policy interdependence of catastrophic events, and develop a rule for determining which catastrophes should be averted and which should not.