DP11037 Finance and Synchronization

Author(s): Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Jean Imbs, Jumana Saleheen
Publication Date: January 2016
Keyword(s): Business Cycle Synchronization, Common Shocks, Contagion, Financial Linkages, Idiosyncratic Shocks
JEL(s): E32, F15, F36, G21, G28
Programme Areas: Financial Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11037

It is well known that the bulk of international financial flows across countries are driven by common shocks. In response to these common shocks, we find that capital tends to flow systematically between the same types of countries, while the discrepancy between GDP growth rates widens. Thus, in the data synchronization falls when financial linkages rise, but only so in response to common shocks. In contrast, financial linkages tend to increase the synchronization of business cycles in response to purely country-specific shocks.