DP11203 Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank
|Author(s):||Jens Iversen, Stefan Laseen, Henrik Lundvall, Ulf Söderström|
|Publication Date:||March 2016|
|Keyword(s):||Forecast evaluation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Real-time forecasting|
|Programme Areas:||Monetary Economics and Fluctuations|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11203|
We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.