DP11203 Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Author(s): Jens Iversen, Stefan Laseen, Henrik Lundvall, Ulf Söderström
Publication Date: March 2016
Keyword(s): Forecast evaluation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Real-time forecasting
JEL(s): E37, E52
Programme Areas: Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11203

We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.