DP11296 Creative Destruction and Uncertainty
|Publication Date:||May 2016|
|Keyword(s):||Business Cycles, creative destruction, uncertainty|
|JEL(s):||D22, D80, E32|
|Programme Areas:||Monetary Economics and Fluctuations|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11296|
Recessions are times of high uncertainty. But does uncertainty cause downturns or vice versa? This paper argues that counter-cyclical fluctuations in uncertainty are, to a large extent, a natural result of creative destruction. I show analytically how aggregate growth and firm-level uncertainty are linked when firms gradually adopt a leading technology: expansions of the technological frontier widen the dispersion of firm-level productivity shocks, a benchmark measure of uncertainty. In a model of endogenous firm dynamics a technological expansion spurs a creative destruction process generating a temporary downturn and rendering uncertainty counter-cyclical. These predictions are confirmed in U.S. data showing that creative destruction accounts for 20 to 40 percent of overall variation in firm-level uncertainty.