DP11427 Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Author(s): Nicholas Crafts, Terence C Mills
Publication Date: August 2016
Keyword(s): growth reversal, industrial revolution, Malthusian model, trend growth
JEL(s): N13, O47
Programme Areas: Economic History
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11427

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.