DP1153 Measuring Core Inflation

Author(s): Danny Quah
Publication Date: March 1995
Keyword(s): Core Inflation, Dynamic Restrictions, Vector Autoregression
JEL(s): C3, E3
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1153

In this paper we argue that measured (RPI) inflation is conceptually mismatched with core inflation: the difference is more than just `measurement error'. We propose a technique for measuring core inflation based on an explicit long-run economic hypothesis. Core inflation is defined as that component of measured inflation that has no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output - a notion that is consistent with the vertical long-run Phillips curve interpretation of the co-movements in inflation and output. We construct a measure of core inflation by placing dynamic restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) system.