DP11906 International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
|Author(s):||Raphael Auer, Andrei A. Levchenko, Philip Sauré|
|Publication Date:||March 2017|
|Keyword(s):||global value chain, globalisation, inflation, input linkages, input-output linkages, international inflation synchronization, monetary policy, production structure, Supply Chain|
|JEL(s):||E31, E52, E58, F02, F14, F33, F41, F42, F62|
|Programme Areas:||International Trade and Regional Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations|
|Link to this Page:||www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11906|
We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disinflation and high inflation.