DP12256 Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity
|Author(s):||Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E Primiceri|
|Publication Date:||August 2017|
|Programme Areas:||Monetary Economics and Fluctuations|
|Link to this Page:||www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12256|
We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a "spike-and-slab" prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate on a single sparse or dense model but on a wide set of models. A clearer pattern of sparsity can only emerge when models of very low dimension are strongly favored a priori.