DP13580 Mutually Consistent Revealed Preference Demand Predictions
|Publication Date:||March 2019|
|Keyword(s):||Demand estimation, mixed integer programming, Revealed Preference|
|JEL(s):||C60, D11, D12|
|Programme Areas:||Industrial Organization|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13580|
Revealed preference restrictions are increasingly used to predict demand behaviour at new budgets of interest and as shape restrictions in nonparametric estimation exercises. However, the restrictions imposed are not sufficient for rationality when predictions are made at multiple budgets. I highlight the nonconvexities in the set of predictions that arise when making multiple predictions. I develop a mixed integer programming characterisation of the problem that can be used to impose rationality on multiple predictions. The approach is applied to the UK Family Expenditure Survey to recover rational demand predictions with substantially reduced computational resources compared to known alternatives.