DP13609 Structural Change and the Fertility Transition

Author(s): Philipp Ager, Benedikt Herz
Publication Date: March 2019
Date Revised: March 2019
Keyword(s): Agricultural Income, Fertility Transition, Industrialization, structural change
JEL(s): J13, N31, O14
Programme Areas: Economic History
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13609

This paper provides new insights on the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.