DP14212 Foreign Currency Loans and Credit Risk: Evidence from U.S. Banks

Author(s):	Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
Publication Date:	December 2019
Keyword(s):	corporate loans, credit risk, cross-border banking, Exchange Rates
JEL(s):	F31, G15, G21
Programme Areas:	International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14212

When firms borrow in foreign currency, exchange rate changes can affect their ability to repay the debt. Loan-level data from U.S. banks' regulatory filings show that a 10 percent depreciation of the local currency quarter-to-quarter increases the probability that a firm becomes past due on its loans by 37 basis points for firms with foreign currency debt relative to those with local currency debt. Because firms do not perfectly hedge, exchange rate risk of the borrowers translates into credit risk for banks. Firms are more likely to borrow in foreign currency if they have foreign income and if a UIP deviation makes foreign currency loans cheaper. The paper establishes additional facts on large U.S. banks' international corporate loan portfolios, offering a more comprehensive perspective than syndicated loan data.