DP14588 Valuation Risk Revalued
|Author(s):||Oliver de Groot, Alexander Richter, Nathaniel Throckmorton|
|Publication Date:||April 2020|
|Keyword(s):||Asset Pricing, Equity premium puzzle, recursive utility, Risk-Free Rate Puzzle|
|JEL(s):||C15, D81, G12|
|Programme Areas:||Financial Economics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14588|
This paper shows the success of valuation risk-time-preference shocks in Epstein-Zin utility-in resolving asset pricing puzzles rests sensitively on the way it is introduced. The specification used in the literature violates several desirable properties of recursive preferences because the weights in the Epstein-Zin time-aggregator do not sum to one. When we revise the specification in a simple asset pricing model the puzzles resurface. However, when estimating a sequence of increasingly rich models, we find valuation risk under the revised specification consistently improves the ability of the models to match asset price and cash-flow dynamics.