DP14708 Common shocks in stocks and bonds

Author(s):	Anna Cieslak, Hao Pang
Publication Date:	May 2020
Keyword(s):	Federal Reserve, risk premia, stock-bond comovement
JEL(s):	E43, E44, G12, G14
Programme Areas:	Financial Economics, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14708

We propose a new approach to identify economic shocks (monetary, growth, and risk-premium news) from stock returns and Treasury yields. The method allows us to study the drivers of asset prices at a daily frequency over the last three-and-a-half decades. We analyze the content of news from the Fed, major macro announcements, and sources of time-varying stock-bond comovement. The results emphasize the importance of two risk-premium shocks-compensation for discount-rate and cash-flow news-which have different effects on stocks and bonds. The impact of the Fed on both risk premiums explains why stocks but not bonds earn high FOMC-day returns.