DP14791 Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis
|Author(s):||Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt|
|Publication Date:||May 2020|
|Keyword(s):||COVID-19, epidemiology, logistic model, SIR model|
|Programme Areas:||Public Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance, Macroeconomics and Growth|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14791|
We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that offer similar degrees of "realism" and flexibility. We provide results connecting the different models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected spread of COVID-19 in the United States to exemplify our results.