DP14791 Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis

Author(s): Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt
Publication Date: May 2020
Keyword(s): COVID-19, epidemiology, logistic model, SIR model
JEL(s): I18
Programme Areas: Public Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance, Macroeconomics and Growth
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14791

We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that off er similar degrees of "realism" and flexibility. We provide results connecting the diff erent models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected spread of COVID-19 in the United States to exemplify our results.