DP14889 Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate

Author(s): Jordi Galí
Publication Date: June 2020
Keyword(s): forward guidance puzzle, open economy New Keynesian model, unconventional monetary policies, uncovered interest rate parity
JEL(s): E43, E58, F41
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics and Finance, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14889

Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using US, euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate differentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.