DP14938 The Making of Hawks and Doves

Author(s): Ulrike M. Malmendier, Stefan Nagel, Zhen Yan
Publication Date: June 2020
Keyword(s): Availability bias, Experience effects, Federal Funds Rate, Inflation forecasts, monetary policy
JEL(s): D84, E03, E50
Programme Areas: Financial Economics, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14938

Personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components.