DP15242 International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author(s):	Kristin Forbes, Ida Hjortsoe, Tsvetelina Nenova
Publication Date:	September 2020
Keyword(s):	Currency wars, Exchange rate, inflation, monetary policy, Pass-Through, Price level
JEL(s):	E31, E37, E52, F47
Programme Areas:	International Macroeconomics and Finance, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15242

We analyse the economic conditions (the "shocks") behind currency movements and show how that analysis can help address a range of questions, focusing on exchange rate pass-through to prices. We build on a methodology previously developed for the United Kingdom and adapt this framework so that it can be applied to a diverse sample of countries using widely available data. The paper provides three examples of how this enriched methodology can be used to provide insights on pass-through and other questions. First, it shows that exchange rate movements caused by monetary policy shocks consistently correspond to significantly higher pass-through than those caused by demand shocks in a cross-section of countries, confirming earlier results for the UK. Second, it shows that the underlying shocks (especially monetary policy shocks) are particularly important for understanding the time-series dimension of pass-through, while the standard structural variables highlighted in previous literature are most important for the cross-section dimension. Finally, the paper explores how the methodology can be used to shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the debate on "currency wars": it shows that the role of monetary policy shocks in driving the exchange rate has increased moderately since the global financial crisis in advanced economies.