DP15451 Daily Tracker of Global Economic Activity. A Close-Up of the Covid-19 Pandemic
This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker,
which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The
GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions
using a minimum amount of information. We find that the GEA Tracker outperforms
its competitors in forecasting stock returns, especially in emerging markets, and in
predicting standard indicators of international business conditions. We show that an
investor would have inexorably profited from using the forecasts provided by the GEA
Tracker to weight his/her portfolio. Finally, the GEA Tracker allows us to present the
daily evolution of global economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.
