DP15617 Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates

Author(s): Nelson Camanho, Harald Hau, Hélène Rey
Publication Date: December 2020
Programme Areas: Financial Economics, International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15617

We examine international equity allocations at the fund level and show how excess foreign returns influence portfolio rebalancing, capital flows and currencies. Our equilibrium model of incomplete FX risk trading where exchange rate risk partially segments international equity markets is consistent with the observed dynamics of equity returns, exchange rates, and fund-level capital flows. We document that rebalancing is more intense under higher FX volatility and Â?find heterogeneous rebalancing behavior across different fund characteristics. A granular instrumental variable (GIV) approach identiÂ?es a currency supply elasticity suggesting that an equity outflow shock of US$7.1 billion depreciates the dollar by 1 percent.