DP15787 Spillover Effects in International Business Cycles

Author(s): Maximo Camacho, Matias Jose Pacce, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós
Publication Date: February 2021
Keyword(s): Business cycle, mixed-frequency, Spillovers
JEL(s): C22, E32, F41, F42
Programme Areas: Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15787

To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we show the high performance of the model in computing inferences of the unobserved factors, accounting for the spillover effects, and estimating the model's parameters. We apply our proposal to data from the G7 economies by analyzing the responses of national factors to shocks in foreign factors and by quantifying the changes in national GDP expectations in response to unexpected positive changes in foreign GDPs. Although the share of the world factor as a source of the international transmission of fluctuations is still signifi cant, this is partially absorbed by the spillover transmissions. In addition, we document a pro-cyclical channel of international transmission of output growth expectations, with the US and UK being the countries that generate the greatest spillovers and Germany and Japan being the countries that generate the smallest spillovers. Therefore, policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of foreign business cycle expectations.