DP15842 Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Author(s): Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay, Silvia Sgherri
Publication Date: February 2021
Keyword(s): capital controls, Capital Flows, emerging markets, foreign-exchange intervention, macroprudential policies
JEL(s): E52, F32, F38, G28
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15842

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on changes in global financial conditions, domestic structural characteristics, and policies. The approach allows us to differentiate between short- and medium-term effects. We find that FX- and macroprudential interventions are effective in mitigating downside risks to portfolio flows stemming from adverse global shocks, while tightening of capital controls in response appears to be counterproductive. Good institutional frameworks are not able to shield countries from the increased volatility of portfolio flows in the immediate aftermath of global shocks. However, they do contribute to a more rapid bounce-back of foreign flows over the medium term.