DP16227 The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

Author(s): Damien De Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko, Lin Ma, Gil Shapira
Publication Date: June 2021
Keyword(s): child mortality, COVID-19, lockdown, SIR-macro
JEL(s): I15, I18
Programme Areas: Development Economics, Macroeconomics and Growth
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16227

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns tocontain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns actually can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produce a net mortality increase.