DP16600 Trust in Scientists in Times of Pandemic: Panel Evidence from 12 Countries

Author(s): Yann Algan, Daniel Cohen, Eva Davoine, Martial Foucault, Stefanie Stantcheva
Publication Date: October 2021
Keyword(s): compliance, COVID-19, NPIs, Trust in scientists, Trust in the government
JEL(s): H11, H12, I1, I3, P16
Programme Areas: Public Economics, Political Economy
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16600

This article analyzes the specific and critical role of trust in scientists for both the support for and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit large-scale, longitudinal, and representative surveys for twelve countries over the period from March to December 2020, and we complement the analysis with experimental data. We find that trust in scientists is the key driving force behind individual support for and compliance with NPIs, and for favorable attitudes towards vaccination. The effect of trust in government is more ambiguous and tends to diminish support for and compliance with NPIs in countries where the recommendations from scientists and the government were not aligned. Trust in others also has seemingly paradoxical effects: in countries where social trust is high, the support for NPIs is low due to higher expectations that others will voluntary social distance. Our individual-level longitudinal data also allows us to evaluate the effects of within-person changes in trust over the pandemic: we show that trust levels, and in particular trust in scientists, have changed dramatically for individuals and within countries, with important subsequent effects on compliant behavior and support for NPIs. Such findings point out the challenging but critical need to maintain trust in scientists during a lasting pandemic that strains citizens and governments.