DP16836 Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Using the Central Bank's Information Set

Author(s):	Rüdiger Bachmann, Isabel Hanisch, Eric Sims
Publication Date:	December 2021
Keyword(s):	identification, local projections, monetary policy shocks, nowcasts
JEL(s):	E31, E50, E52, E58
Programme Areas:	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16836

We identify monetary policy shocks by exploiting variation in the central bank's information set. To be specific, we use differences between nowcasts of the output gap and inflation with final, revised estimates of these series to isolate movements in the policy rate unrelated to economic conditions. We then compute the effects of a monetary policy shock on the aggregate economy using local projection methods. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a limited negative effect on output but a persistent negative impact on prices. In contrast to alternative identification approaches, we do not observe a price puzzle when analyzing the period from 1987 to 2008. Further, we validate the identification approach in a simple New Keynesian model, augmented by the assumption that the central bank observes the ingredients of the Taylor rule with error.