DP17273 The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games
|Publication Date:||May 2022|
|Keyword(s):||COVID-19, home advantage, Market Efficiency, Soccer|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics and Finance|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=17273|
The support of home spectators is one of the contributing factors to the home advantage effect in sports matches. The Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted swiftly to account for a reduced home advantage in both goal difference and the probability of a win. These adjustments proved accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared to suggest a much bigger change in home advantage.