DP1743 Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: An Evaluation
|Author(s):||Fabio-Cesare Bagliano, Carlo A. Favero|
|Publication Date:||November 1997|
|Keyword(s):||monetary transmission, VAR models|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1743|
This paper evaluates VAR models designed to analyse the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the United States by considering three issues: specification, identification, and the effect of the omission of the long-term interest rate. Specification analysis suggests that only VAR models estimated on a single monetary regime feature parameter stability and do not show signs of mis-specification. The identification analysis shows that VAR-based monetary policy shocks and policy disturbances identified from alternative sources are not highly correlated but yield similar descriptions of the monetary transmission mechanism. Lastly, the inclusion of the long-term interest rate in a benchmark VAR delivers a more precise estimation of the structural parameters capturing behaviour in the market for reserves and shows that contemporaneous fluctuations in long-term interest rates are an important determinant of the monetary authority?s reaction function.