DP1802 Persistence and Mobility in International Trade

Author(s): James Proudman, Stephen J. Redding
Publication Date: March 1998
Keyword(s): Distribution Dynamics, International Trade, Learning by Doing, Markov chains, revealed comparative advantage, Technological Change
JEL(s): C10, F10, O30
Programme Areas: International Trade and Regional Economics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1802

The theoretical literature on endogenous growth and international trade suggests that comparative advantage is endogenous. Sector-specific learning by doing and technology transfer respectively provide reasons why initial patterns of international specialization may persist or exhibit mobility over time. This paper evaluates the extent of persistence or mobility in trade in manufactured goods in Germany and the United Kingdom for the period 1970?93. A measure of the extent of specialization is presented and its evolution over time modelled as a sequence of cross-section distributions. Evidence of considerable mobility is found, with the degree of mobility in the United Kingdom exceeding that in Germany.