DP1976 Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap

Author(s): Ryan Sullivan, Allan Timmermann, Halbert White
Publication Date: September 1998
Keyword(s): bootstrap methods, data-snooping, Financial Performance, Technical Trading Rules
JEL(s): G12
Programme Areas: Financial Economics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1976

In this paper we utilize White's Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data-snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect in the context of the full universe from which the trading rules were drawn. Hence, for the first time, the paper presents a comprehensive test of performance across all technical trading rules examined. We consider the study of Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992), expand their universe of 26 trading rules, apply the rules to 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and determine the effects of data-snooping.