DP213 Econometric Modelling of the Birth Rate

Author(s): Eric De Cooman, John F Ermisch, Heather Joshi
Publication Date: December 1987
Keyword(s): Birth Rates, Fertility, Forecasting, Labour Markets, Panel Data
JEL(s): 824, 826, 841
Programme Areas: Human Resources
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=213

In this paper we explore two econometric approaches to data on parity-specific birth rates in England and Wales during the postwar period. Both approaches can accommodate complex dynamic adjustments within birth rates and focus on adjustments of fertility behavior in response to changes in certain labor market variables: the ratio of women's to men's wages, a cohort's long-term level of female attachment to the labor market, the relative size of generations, price inflation, real earnings and unemployment. The first approach uses a panel data estimator, while the second divides the data into time-series for five-year age groups. The latter method appears more promising for short-run forecasting.