DP2206 Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC
| Author(s): | Michael J Artis, Massimiliano Marcellino |
| Publication Date: | August 1999 |
| Keyword(s): | fiscal forecasting, forecast encompassing |
| JEL(s): | C53, E17, H62 |
| Programme Areas: | International Macroeconomics |
| Link to this Page: | cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=2206 |
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.