DP3539 A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit

Author(s): Andrew K Rose, Mark Spiegel
Publication Date: September 2002
Keyword(s): bank, bilateral, empirical, loan, panel, theory
JEL(s): F13, F33
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics, International Trade and Regional Economics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=3539

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.