DP4482 Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates

Author(s):	Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, Fabrizio Perri
Publication Date:	July 2004
Keyword(s):	country risk, financial crises, international business cycles, sudden stops, working capital
JEL(s):	E32, F32, F41
Programme Areas:	International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4482

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%.