DP4645 Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications
|Author(s):||Massimo Guidolin, Allan G Timmermann|
|Publication Date:||September 2004|
|Keyword(s):||nonlinear econometric models, simulation models, term structure of risk|
|Programme Areas:||Financial Economics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4645|
This Paper characterizes the term structure of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall under different econometric approaches including multivariate regime switching, GARCH-in-mean models with student-t errors, two-component GARCH models and a non-parametric bootstrap. We show how to derive the risk measures for each of these models and document large variations in term structures across econometric specifications. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment applied to stock, bond and cash portfolios suggests that the best model is asset- and horizon specific but that the bootstrap and regime switching model are best overall for VaR levels of 5% and 1%, respectively.