DP5905 Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered
Author(s): | Javier García-Fronti, Marcus Miller, Lei Zhang |
Publication Date: | October 2006 |
Keyword(s): | contractionary devaluation, financial crises, Keynesian recession, supply and demand shocks |
JEL(s): | E12, E4, E51, F34, G18 |
Programme Areas: | International Macroeconomics |
Link to this Page: | cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5905 |
The stylised facts of currency crises in emerging markets include output contraction coming hard on the heels of devaluation, with a prominent role for the adverse balance-sheet effects of liability dollarisation. In the light of the South East Asian experience, we propose an eclectic blend of the supply-side account of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000) with a demand recession triggered by balance sheet effects (Krugman, 1999). This sharpens the dilemma facing the monetary authorities - how to defend the currency without depressing the economy. But, with credible commitment or complementary policy actions, excessive output losses can, in principle, be avoided.