DP65 Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis
We use an intertemporal model incorporating short-run labour and goods markets disequilibrium to analyse the consequences of oil price shocks for unemployment, investment and the current account. A dominant transfer element leads to Keynesian unemployment now and deterioration tomorrow in the final-goods terms of trade. A dominant supply-shock element leads to classical unemployment now and an improvement tomorrow in the final-goods terms of trade. Investment falls if there is classical unemployment but increases in the K-region under Putty-Clay technology. Current account deficits are larger in the K-region than in the C-region. If world interest rates fall, investment accelerates in the K-region but not in the C-region. We use these results to explain observed differences in response to oil shocks.
