DP706 Ageing, Migration and Labour Mobility

Author(s): Rainer Winkelmann, Klaus F Zimmermann
Publication Date: October 1992
Keyword(s): Poisson Regression, Predicted Age-structure, Simulation
JEL(s): C25, J10, J60
Programme Areas: Human Resources
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=706

This paper provides insights into the relationship between the substantial ageing of the European labour force, large migration movements, and individual labour mobility. First, qualitative predictions are derived using the theory of production with multiple inputs. Second, quantitative relationships are measured using a large sample of German individual data. Mobility is measured by the number of job changes of an individual during a ten-year period. We address some methodological issues raised by the use of non-negative integer data in an econometric investigation. The estimates are used to evaluate the interactions in several simulations: What is the age-mobility profile? How is it affected by migration? What are the potential effects of labour-force ageing as predicted for Germany and Europe up to the beginning of the next century?