DP7081 Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

Author(s): Antonio Ciccone
Publication Date: December 2008
Keyword(s): Mean reversion, Rainfall, Transitory Shocks
JEL(s): O0, P0, Q0
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7081

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.