DP7081 Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
|Publication Date:||December 2008|
|Keyword(s):||Mean reversion, Rainfall, Transitory Shocks|
|JEL(s):||O0, P0, Q0|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7081|
I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.