DP7227 The Equity Premium and the Business Cycle: the Role of Demand and Supply Shocks
|Author(s):||Peter N Smith, Steffen Sorensen, Michael R. Wickens|
|Publication Date:||March 2009|
|Keyword(s):||business cycles, demand and supply shocks, equity premium, stock returns|
|JEL(s):||C32, C51, E44, G12|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics, Financial Economics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7227|
This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks.