DP7901 Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Author(s):	Andrew K Rose, Mark Spiegel
Publication Date:	June 2010
Keyword(s):	cross-section, current account, data, early warning, empirical, GDP, growth, recession
JEL(s):	E65, F30
Programme Areas:	International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page:	cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7901

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.