DP7991 Revisiting U. S. productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future

Author(s): Robert J Gordon
Publication Date: September 2010
Keyword(s): capital quality, human capital, labor quality, labour productivity, long-term economic growth, multi-factor productivity, U. S. economic history
JEL(s): D24, E01, E22, N1, N11, N12
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=7991

This paper provides three perspectives on long-run growth rates of labor productivity (LP) and of multi-factor productivity (MFP) for the U. S. economy. It extracts statistical growth trends for labor productivity from quarterly data for the total economy going back to 1952, provides new estimates of MFP growth extending back to 1891, and tackles the problem of forecasting LP and MFP twenty years into the future.