DP8604 Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods
|Author(s):||Raffaella Giacomini, Giuseppe Ragusa|
|Publication Date:||October 2011|
|Keyword(s):||Bayesian VAR, Euler conditions, Exponential tilting, Forecast comparisons|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8604|
We propose a method for modifying a given density forecast in a way that incorporates the information contained in theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor models or Bayesian VARs, by ensuring that they satisfy theoretical restrictions given for example by Euler equations or Taylor rules. The method yields a new density (and thus point-) forecast which has a simple and convenient analytical expression and which by construction satisfies the theoretical restrictions. The method is flexible and can be used in the realistic situation in which economic theory does not specify a likelihood for the variables of interest, and thus cannot be readily used for forecasting.