DP8622 Government Spending Cyclicality: Evidence from Rainfall Shocks as an Instrument for Cyclical Income
|Author(s):||Markus Brückner, Mark Gradstein|
|Publication Date:||October 2011|
|Keyword(s):||cyclicality, Fiscal policy|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics, Public Economics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8622|
This research revisits the cyclicality of fiscal policies. To identify and estimate more precisely the magnitude of a causal effect of cyclical income on government spending, we employ annual rainfall data as an instrument for national income in the context of sub-Saharan countries. Our results confirm procyclical behavior of government spending and of tax revenues; debt and deficit are found to be countercyclical. Specifically, government spending is procyclical during upturns and acyclical during downturns. We also find that its procyclicality is correlated with corruption, especially among democracies.