DP8984 What's News in Business Cycles

Author(s): Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe
Publication Date: May 2012
Keyword(s): Anticipated Shocks, Bayesian Estimation., Sources of Aggregate Fluctuations
JEL(s): C11, C51, E13, E32
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8984

In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our identification approach relies on the fact that forward-looking agents react to anticipated changes in exogenous fundamentals before such changes materialize. It further allows us to distinguish changes in fundamentals by their anticipation horizon. We find that anticipated shocks account for about half of predicted aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment, and employment.