DP9043 Spread the News: How the Crisis Affected the Impact of News on the European Sovereign Bond Markets

Author(s): Roel Beetsma, Frank de Jong, Massimo Giuliodori, Daniel Widijanto
Publication Date: July 2012
Keyword(s): co-movement, Euro-intelligence, GIIPS, interest rate spreads, new variables, non-GIIPS, spill-overs
JEL(s): E62, G01, G12, G15, H61, H62
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9043

We investigate how "news" affected domestic interest spreads vis-à-vis Germany and how it propagated to other countries during the recent crisis period, thereby distinguishing between the so-called GIIPS countries and other European countries. We make original use of the Eurointelligence newsflash to construct news variables based on the amount of news that is released on a country on a given date. We find that more news on average raises the domestic interest spread of GIIPS countries since September 2009. In addition, we find that it leads to an increase in the interest spreads of other GIIPS countries. The magnitude of the news effects is related to cross-border bank holdings. A split of news into bad and good news shows that the upward pressure on domestic and foreign interest spreads is driven by bad news. We also find spill-overs of bad news from GIIPS countries onto non-GIIPS countries. However, the magnitude of these spill-overs is substantially smaller than that to other GIIPS countries.