DP9109 Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy

Author(s): Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud, Keyu Jin
Publication Date: August 2012
Keyword(s): capital flows, credit constraints, Globalization, life-cycle household savings, saving and current account imbalances
JEL(s): F21, F32, F41
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9109

In a period of rapid integration and accelerated growth in emerging markets, three striking trends have been (1) a divergence in the private saving rates of emerging markets and advanced economies, (2) large net capital outflows from emerging markets, and (3) a sustained decline in the world interest rate. This paper shows that in a multi-period OLG model, the interaction between growth and household credit constraints --- more severe in emerging markets --- is able to account for all of the above facts. We provide micro-level evidence that corroborates our mechanism: saving behaviors across age groups in the U.S. and China are broadly supportive of the predictions of the model.