DP9222 Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa
|Author(s):||Masayuki Kudamatsu, Torsten Persson, David Strömberg|
|Publication Date:||November 2012|
|Keyword(s):||climate change, maternal malaria, maternal malnutrition, natural experiments|
|JEL(s):||I15, O13, O15, O55, Q54|
|Programme Areas:||Development Economics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9222|
We estimate how random weather fluctuations affected infant mortality across 28 African countries in the past, combining high-resolution data from retrospective fertility surveys (DHS) and climate-model reanalysis (ERA-40). We find that infants were much more likely to die when exposed in utero to much longer malaria spells than normal in epidemic malaria regions, and to droughts in arid areas, especially when born in the hungry season. Based on these estimates, we predict aggregate infant deaths in Africa, due to extreme weather events and to maternal malaria in epidemic areas for 1981-2000 and 2081-2100.