DP9532 Noise Bubbles
|Author(s):||Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti, Marco Lippi, Luca Sala|
|Publication Date:||June 2013|
|Keyword(s):||Noise shocks, Rational bubbles, Structural VARs|
|JEL(s):||C32, E32, E62|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9532|
We introduce noisy information into a standard present value stock price model. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. The resulting equilibrium stock price includes a transitory component ? the "noise bubble" ? which can be responsible for boom and bust episodes unrelated to economic fundamentals. We propose a non-standard VAR procedure to estimate the structural shock and the "noise" shock, their impulse response functions and the bubble component of stock prices. We apply such procedure to US data and find that noise explains a large fraction of stock price volatility. In particular the dot-com bubble is entirely explained by noise. On the contrary the stock price boom peaking in 2007 is not a bubble, whereas the following stock market crisis is largely due to negative noise shocks.