DP9763 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s

Author(s): Jingwen Fan, Patrick Minford, Zhirong Ou
Publication Date: November 2013
Keyword(s): fiscal theory of the price level, identification, indirect interference, testing, UK inflation
JEL(s): E31, E37, E62, E65
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9763

We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced form that is common in form but, because each model is over-identified numerically distinct. We use indirect inference to test which model could be generating the VECM approximation to the reduced form that we estimate on the data for the episode. Neither model is rejected, though the Orthodox model outperforms the FTPL. But the best account of the period assumes that expectations were a probability-weighted combination of the two regimes.