Discussion paper

DP11915 A theory of regional conflict complexes

Civil conflicts spill over to neighboring countries. This paper proposes a theory
of the contagion of civil wars, emphasizing two main channels of diffusion of a
conflict. First, weak territorial control facilitates the emergence of a regional market
for war inputs in the “porous frontier”. Second, refugees fleeing a conflict zone
may unwittingly destabilize their host country. In both cases, the contagion effect is
nonlinear and creates multiple equilibrium situations of regional complexes of civil
conflicts. This helps explain observed patterns of regional clustering of conflict and
state capacity, and raises identification issues in the measurement of the contagion
effect. We also derive a positive spillover of civil wars: governments are sometimes
in a position to avoid contagion by improving their institutions. Finally,we explore
policy implications for military intervention, military and institutional cooperation,
and the international coordination of refugee policy.

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Citation

Verdier, T (2017), ‘DP11915 A theory of regional conflict complexes‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11915. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp11915